1,098
edits
Changes
no edit summary
{{ANEEtiqueta|palabrasclave=pandemic, covid19, COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 hotspots, vulnerability to COVID-19, risk of COVID-19 infection|descripcion= Cartographic study of COVID-19 hotspots in the city of Malaga|url=valor}}{{ANEObra|Serie=Monographs from the National Atlas of Spain|Logo=[[File:Logo Monografía.jpg|left|50x50px|link=]]|Título=The COVID-19 pandemic in Spain|Subtítulo=First wave: from the first cases to the end of June 2020|Año=2021|Contenido=New content}}{{ANENavegacionSubcapitulo(monografía COVID-19)|estructura temática=Estructura temática|seccion=[[The COVID-19 pandemic in Spain|The COVID-19 pandemic in Spain]]|capitulo=[[Different spatial behaviours|Different spatial behaviours]]|subcapitulo=Málaga}}{{ANENavegacionHermanos |anterior=[[City and Region of Madrid]] |siguiente=[[Synthetic vulnerability index in Barcelona and Madrid]]}} [[File:Malaga Covid--19-hotspots 2020 map 17727 eng.jpg||left|thumb|300px|Map: Covid-19 hotspots. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Covid--19-hotspots_2020_map_17727_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Focos-de-contagio--por-COVID--19.-Ciudad-de-Malaga_2020_mapa_17727_spa.zip More information].]] [[File:Malaga Infection-hazard.-Number-of-Covid--19-cases 2020 map 17731 eng.jpg||right|thumb|300px|Map: Infection hazard. Number of COVID-19 cases. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Infection-hazard.-Number-of-Covid--19-cases_2020_map_17731_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Peligrosidad-de-los-focos-de-contagio.-Afectados-por-COVID--19.-Ciudad-de-Malaga_2020_mapa_17731_spa.zip More information].]] [[File:Malaga Transmission-hazard.-Percentage-of-Covid--19-cases 2020 map 17732 eng.jpg||left|thumb|300px|Map: Infection hazard. Percentage of COVID-19 cases. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Transmission-hazard.-Percentage-of-Covid--19-cases_2020_map_17732_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Peligrosidad-de-los-focos-de-contagio.-Porcentaje-afectados-por-COVID--19.-Malaga_2020_mapa_17732_spa.zip More information].]] [[File:Malaga Population-density-and-Covid--19-hotspots 2020 map 17733 eng.jpg||right|thumb|300px|Map: Population density and COVID-19 hotspots. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Population-density-and-Covid--19-hotspots_2020_map_17733_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Densidad-de-poblacion-y-focos-de-contagio-por-COVID--19.-Ciudad-de-Malaga_2020_mapa_17733_spa.zip More information].]] [[File:Malaga Vulnerability-to-Covid--19 2020 map 17737 eng.jpg||left|thumb|300px|Map: Vulnerability to COVID-19. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Vulnerability-to-Covid--19_2020_map_17737_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Vulnerabilidad-frente-al-contagio-por-COVID--19.-Ciudad-de-Malaga_2020_mapa_17737_spa.zip More information].]] [[File:Malaga Risk-of-Covid--19-transmission 2020 map 17738 eng.jpg||right|thumb|300px|Map: Risk of COVID-19 infection. City of Málaga. 2020. Málaga. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Risk-of-Covid--19-transmission_2020_map_17738_eng.pdf PDF]. [//centrodedescargas.cnig.es/CentroDescargas/busquedaRedirigida.do?ruta=PUBLICACION_CNIG_DATOS_VARIOS/aneTematico/Malaga_Riesgo-de-contagio-por-COVID--19.-Ciudad-de-Malaga_2020_mapa_17738_spa.zip More information].]]
The maps showing the COVID-19 outbreak in the city of Málaga during the rising phase of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) have been drawn up from a very detailed, real-time updated source of information, i.e. COVID-19 cases by home address. These thorough data have enabled assessing the patterns of distribution of COVID-19 cases in place and time in an urban environment over months of observation. COVID-19 cases do not show a spatial pattern of random distribution. Instead, they are gathered in clusters or aggregation of cases related by geographical propinquity called hotspots.
Mapping hotspots and the risk of infection may be very useful when it comes to deciding on a relevant issue. The probability of being infected within a certain period is higher when living close to a hotspot than when living anywhere else in the city. This entails a direct predictive way that enables focusing on specific areas in the city where surveillance, alerts, screens and reports shall be intensified. This all helps stopping infections at the very root.
The spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases was uneven during the first period as may be observed on the different maps. Broadly speaking, hotspot patterns of distribution in the city of Málaga may be explained by dividing the territory in three stripes running parallel to the coast, i.e. a southern strip, a central band and a northern fringe. The southern strip, which spreads along the coastline, is ruled by a scattered distribution of cases that do not form hotspots, except for ''Malagueta, Alameda de Colón and Echevarría (El Palo)''. In the same vein, the western part of this coastal band shows a predominantly dispersed pattern of distribution in the neighbourhoods located south of the railway. This dispersed pattern of distribution is also largely found in the areas located on the right bank of the River Guadalhorce. To the north of this southern strip, there is a central band of the city where the spatial pattern of infection is no longer disperse, but concentrated, as the aggregation of cases around hotspots increases significantly. The pattern of distribution becomes disperse again in the northern fringe of the city, both in its central and western sectors.
The historical city centre shows a dispersed pattern of distribution in which no hotspots may be discerned. In the western part of the city, the hotspots around ''La Unión / Los Tilos and Camino de San Rafael '' streets are the most significant aggregation of cases. However, the whole area around ''Cádiz road'', with areas of high population density, shows a fairly dispersed pattern of distribution where no clear hotspots may be observed. The area that concentrates a greater amount of hotspots is the one located to the north-west of the city, mainly to the north of ''Carlos Haya avenue and Martínez Maldonado street''. Hotspots located to the northwest of the Regional Hospital are noteworthy for the high case density that does not match with the population density in the area.
When looking for causes that may explain the hotspot patterns of distribution, the most immediate assumption is the one that links a higher concentration of cases to a higher population density. A preliminary analysis of the population density map of Málaga, on which also the location of the main hotspots is shown, reveals that the areas with the highest case density are also the areas with the highest population density. However, this thesis does not hold in the opposite direction, as there are large areas of the city with very low population density that nevertheless have a high percentage of COVID-19 cases. In the same vein, areas of high population density with no significant aggregation of cases are very common (e.g. the northern and western parts of the city).
When assessing the possible explaining factors for case distribution in an urban area during the first wave of the pandemic, a conclusion may be drawn: although population density is partly related to the case distribution, a more complex multi-factorial model underlies. Economic activity and age (young students, type of work, etc.) contribute in the first instance to the location and transmission of infection, which will then be distributed according to the mobility of the population, the shifts amongst hotspots as well as some other reasons. Variables such as building typology and living conditions (e.g. overcrowding, ventilation, etc.) or proximity to areas of possible infection (e.g. hospitals, healthcare centres, etc.) are also explaining factors. On the other hand, nearness to the sea and the positive environmental conditions it provides (less pollution, greater exposure to the wind, etc.) may lead to fewer hotspots.
{{ANEAutoria|Autores= Matías Mérida Rodríguez, Jesús Miranda Páez, María Jesús Perles Roselló y Juan Francisco Sortino Barrionuevo}}
{{ANEPaginaDescargas (monografía COVID-19)}}
[[es:Málaga]][[CategoríaCategory:Servicios y equipamientos socialesSocial facilities]]
