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Mapping hotspots and the risk of infection may be very useful when it comes to deciding on a relevant issue. The probability of being infected within a certain period is higher when living close to a hotspot than when living anywhere else in the city. This entails a direct predictive way that enables focusing on specific areas in the city where surveillance, alerts, screens and reports shall be intensified. This all helps stopping infections at the very root.
The spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases was uneven during the first period as may be observed on the different maps. Broadly speaking, hotspot patterns of distribution in the city of Málaga may be explained by dividing the territory in three stripes running parallel to the coast, i.e. a southern strip, a central band and a northern fringe. The southern strip, which spreads along the coastline, is ruled by a scattered distribution of cases that do not form hotspots, except for ''Malagueta, Alameda de Colón and Echevarría (El Palo)''. In the same vein, the western part of this coastal band shows a predominantly dispersed pattern of distribution in the neighbourhoods located south of the railway. This dispersed pattern of distribution is also largely found in the areas located on the right bank of the River Guadalhorce. To the north of this southern strip, there is a central band of the city where the spatial pattern of infection is no longer disperse, but concentrated, as the aggregation of cases around hotspots increases significantly. The pattern of distribution becomes disperse again in the northern fringe of the city, both in its central and western sectors.
The historical city centre shows a dispersed pattern of distribution in which no hotspots may be discerned. In the western part of the city, the hotspots around ''La Unión / Los Tilos and Camino de San Rafael '' streets are the most significant aggregation of cases. However, the whole area around ''Cádiz road'', with areas of high population density, shows a fairly dispersed pattern of distribution where no clear hotspots may be observed. The area that concentrates a greater amount of hotspots is the one located to the north-west of the city, mainly to the north of ''Carlos Haya avenue and Martínez Maldonado street''. Hotspots located to the northwest of the Regional Hospital are noteworthy for the high case density that does not match with the population density in the area.
When looking for causes that may explain the hotspot patterns of distribution, the most immediate assumption is the one that links a higher concentration of cases to a higher population density. A preliminary analysis of the population density map of Málaga, on which also the location of the main hotspots is shown, reveals that the areas with the highest case density are also the areas with the highest population density. However, this thesis does not hold in the opposite direction, as there are large areas of the city with very low population density that nevertheless have a high percentage of COVID-19 cases. In the same vein, areas of high population density with no significant aggregation of cases are very common (e.g. the northern and western parts of the city).